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1. Scope and source vintage

This snapshot reproduces selected public figures from four AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics (QED) reports: Q3/Q4 2025 and Q1/Q2 2026, including the 2026 reports’ prior-year Q1/Q2 comparison figures. Output and captured prices cover six continuous quarters from Q1 2025 through Q2 2026, NEM overall. No monthly generation series, state-level generation breakdown, Western Australia or Northern Territory is included.

All figures are tied to the linked report revision. We do not fetch live generation, call a paid API or independently reconstruct SCADA output. Updates are offline reviewed publications, separate from the Electricity price updater.

2. Average output and estimated energy

Average output is in MW, not installed capacity. Q3/Q4 2025 and Q1/Q2 2026 values reproduce rounded MW figures in their respective reports. Q1/Q2 2025 values are derived by subtracting the published rounded year-on-year increase from the current-year rounded value. For example, Q2 2025 wind average output is 4,198 − 706 = 3,492 MW.

Estimated quarter energy in GWh = average MW × calendar-quarter hours ÷ 1,000. Q1 has 2,160 hours and Q2 has 2,184 hours in both years shown; Q3 and Q4 2025 each have 2,208 hours. These are approximations from rounded source inputs, not independently metered or settlement energy. Displayed totals are rounded to whole GWh; CSVs retain three decimal places but this does not increase source accuracy.

Distributed PV is AEMO’s estimated distributed solar category. It is kept separate from grid-scale solar and should not be read as an exact metered rooftop-only total. No capacity factor, avoided emissions or project-level yield is inferred.

3. Generation shares and storage

All technology shares are published percentages, not recalculated from rounded MW. Q1/Q2 use the 2026 reports’ primary-generation tables, excluding battery discharge and pumped-hydro generation. Q3/Q4 2025 use their published total-supply tables, including storage in the denominator. These technology shares are not directly comparable across definitions; the page labels each quarter and does not join shares into a common-basis trend.

Overall renewable share is separate: Q3 2025’s 42.7% includes storage; Q4 2025 uses the separately published storage-adjusted 50.1%, rather than the report’s storage-inclusive 51.0%. Q1/Q2 use primary renewable shares excluding storage. CSVs retain both basis fields. We do not estimate a missing Q3 storage-adjusted share from rounded inputs. Published percentages and rounded MW may not reconcile exactly.

4. Captured spot prices

The page reproduces AEMO’s NEM-wide, fuel-level generation-volume-weighted average spot prices (VWAP) for wind and grid-scale solar, as labelled in Q3 2025 Figure 20, Q4 2025 Figure 25, Q1 2026 Figure 29 and Q2 2026 Figure 28. These are rounded AUD/MWh values. They describe how spot prices coincide with output across each fleet and its regions; they are not the time-weighted monthly AVGRRP shown under Electricity.

We do not calculate a capture ratio because these summaries do not provide the matched benchmark and regional weighting needed to define one consistently. Distributed PV has no capture-price series here. Fuel VWAP is not a project-specific capture price, net revenue, PPA price, certificate value or return. It excludes hedging/PPA effects, project costs and MLF adjustments.

5. Comparisons and negative-price context

Year-on-year average-output change = (current MW ÷ previous same-quarter MW − 1) × 100. Share change is in percentage points, not percent. The same-quarter chart avoids treating seasonal differences as year-on-year growth. Q1/Q2 2025 and Q3/Q4 2025 have no earlier same-quarter comparison in this snapshot. The continuous output chart uses MW, rather than GWh, to avoid differences in quarter length. Seasonal changes and source revisions still matter; adjacent-quarter changes are not year-on-year growth.

The hour-of-day profile and separate negative-price indicator cover five regions, October 2025–September 2026. Hour buckets use fixed AEST and the interval start: subtract five minutes from each ending timestamp before selecting the hour. An interval ending at 00:00 belongs to 23:00–00:00 of the preceding day. For each regional hour, the share is negative TRADE intervals divided by all verified TRADE intervals within that hour across the stated window. All 60 retained original files are checked against their recorded SHA-256 hashes, and hourly counts reconcile to the published monthly totals. The quarter selector does not change this independent annual price window. It is contextual information, with a different period and geography. A negative-price interval share is not generation exposure or a cause of reduced capture prices without matched interval output.

6. PPA strike price comparison

The calculator subtracts an input strike price from each published wind or grid-scale solar fuel VWAP, in nominal AUD/MWh. Differences use two-decimal arithmetic. Input precision is limited to two decimal places and an absolute value of 1,000,000 AUD/MWh for display stability; this is a technical input bound, not a market price limit.

The result is a historical price difference, not a buyer or seller cash settlement. No contract volume, project profile, regional basis, losses, escalation, certificates or derivative terms are modelled. Six quarters remain visible regardless of the main quarter selector. Browser calculations and CSV generation make no network requests and do not store or upload the input.

7. Traceability and reuse

Each CSV retains report URL, publication date, page/figure, calculation basis, recorded verification date, method version and dataset snapshot ID. Public table/chart figures were transcribed and checked against the report text. Original PDF binaries were not downloaded in this session, so no source-file SHA-256 is claimed. The snapshot identifies our transcribed dataset.

Underlying published figures © AEMO. The reports refer to AEMO’s copyright permissions; attribution and links are retained. This is an independent, enthusiast-led project, not affiliated with or endorsed by AEMO. General information only.

Source reports

Method qed-green-v2 · source figures checked 2026-10-02.